Mankato, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS63 KMPX 261725
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain this morning across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin.

- Temperatures falling throughout the day, with highs only in
  the 30s for Thursday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon
  in southwest Minnesota.

- More active weather expected next week as we move into April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There`s a 160kt jet right now screaming along the Canadian
border. We`re on the southern gradient of the jet. This jet is
being driven by the very strong thermal gradient across North
America, which saw highs in the single digits Wednesday in
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while it was in the 90s again across
southern Nebraska and Kansas. The northern edge of the EML, as
evidenced by mid-level lapse rates near 9 deg C/KM, comes up
into central SoDak, extending east into MN into the Mankato
area. The northern edge of this EML is where we`ve seen an area
of rain (and even thunderstorms!) develop across the Dakotas
border into central MN. We continue favor the AIFS for where the
axis of heaviest rain will fall, which includes the likes of
the Canadian and GFS as well with upwards of 0.4" of QPF falling
from roughly Morris to Ladysmith in the northern half of the
MPX area. South of this band, forcing falls off quick going into
the EML and that, along with dry low level air will result in a
pretty sharp QPF gradient from north to south across the Twin
Cities this morning. Fortunately, it`s just rain and not snow...

This band of rain is also falling along a stationary boundary
that is stalled out across central MN early this morning.
However, as we go through the morning, this stationary front
will take off to the south as a cold front. So hopefully you all
enjoyed the highs for the day early this morning as we`ll have
falling temepratures through the day as the colder airmass moves
in. That cold airmass will be over us Friday, when highs will
struggle to get out of the 30s.

For the weekend, we`ll get on the backside of the high, with
warm air returning. The problem this weekend is the warmer air
starts arriving on Saturday, but higher dewpoints don`t arrive
until Sunday. NBM tends to be conservative with the mixing for
both low RHs and wind speeds and even so, it has RHs Saturday
afternoon in southwest MN dropping to around 20% with southwest
winds up in the 20 to 25 mph range, so it is looking
increasingly likely we may need our first fire weather headlines
of the season on Saturday.

Next week continues to look more active as we head into April.
Monday night, we`ll get into the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak and this will start a more active weather
period as we see a western trough/eastern ridge pattern develop.
Latest NBM basically has 30-40 PoPs from Monday night through
Thursday, which captures the current idea well of a more active
pattern developing, but low confidence on when/where that precip
would be this far out. At this point though, the ensembles are
showing better moisture to our east and forcing to our north
through the middle of next week, which may keep us on the drier
side of things. It`s the end of next week into the first weekend
of April where things look a little better for us. And of
course by then we`ll have to watch where the cold air is as
well...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

MVFR ceilings at initialization will remain across the area
through late afternoon then gradually lift to low-range VFR
going into the evening hours. Skies will then partially clear
out while clouds remain at varying levels overnight through
midday Friday. Breezy/gusty N winds will continue through the
daylight hours, diminish a bit this evening through overnight,
then pick up once again to breezy/gusty fro the NW on Friday. No
additional precipitation is expected at any of the TAF sites.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings to continue through late afternoon then
during the afternoon-evening push rise to VFR levels. VFR
conditions are then expected through the remainder of this
duration, with some clearing tonight through tomorrow and no
precipitation expected. Some fair wx mid-level cumulus clouds
are possible during the day tomorrow. Winds to continue from the
N through tonight, with breezy/gusty speeds into this evening
before settling down to around 10kts. Speeds then pick up once
again after daybreak Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G25-30 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC